The Axle Advantage, Monthly Newsletter
Axle
Logistics
Key Trends
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Tariff Uncertainty Continues: Ongoing tariff discussions are creating confusion and cautious sentiment across the industry.
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Freight Volumes Soften: Slower economic growth and reduced imports are contributing to a modest decline in truck loadings.
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Forecast Remains Fluid: Future freight demand is uncertain, with multiple recovery scenarios still in play.
Monthly
News
Ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to create a sense of confusion and caution across the transportation industry. Slower economic growth and weak import activity have led to a decline in truck loadings. However, given the strong start to 2025, freight volumes are not expected to decline sharply but rather follow a gradual downward trend with a slower recovery.
That said, several alternative scenarios remain possible, one of which appears more likely than others. If the short-term impact proves deeper than currently forecasted, a sharper recovery could follow, driven by pent-up demand and reduced capacity. This would result in near-term weakness but stronger truck utilization in the longer term, potentially pushing 2026 utilization above current projections.
Market
Trends
Supply Update
Uncertainty around truck utilization remains high, driven by a wide range of possible scenarios for demand and capacity amid a weakening truck loadings outlook. FTR expects active truck utilization to decline significantly by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a potential recovery beginning in the second quarter of 2026.
Demand Update
FTR has revised its 2025 truck loadings forecast downward due to the anticipated economic and freight impacts of tariffs. Total loadings are now expected to be slightly below flat y/y, compared to the previous forecast of a 1.1% increase.
Spot volume has also declined, reversing the surge that began in February. This drop is most notable in the flatbed market and is likely tied to the end of pull-forward activity ahead of tariffs on commodities such as steel, aluminum, and large capital goods like machinery.
Market
Trends
Rate Update
Truckload rates for 2025 are now projected to rise just 1.6% y/y, down from the previous forecast of a 2.5% increase. Both spot and contract rates are underperforming expectations, with spot rates seeing the largest drop down from +3.2% to +1.3%. The contract rate forecast has been adjusted slightly lower, from +2.1% to +1.8%.
This weaker performance has also impacted the 2026 outlook, with total truckload rates now expected to grow only 1.3% year-over-year. However, there remains potential for these forecasts to shift depending on how rates evolve in 2025.
Market
Forecast
Driven by a surge in volume from tariff-related pull-forward activity and declining diesel prices, March saw a positive shift in the Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), which rose to +0.28 from -0.21 in February.
Uncertainty around the long-term impact of tariffs on freight volumes has led to a revised TCI outlook. The index is now expected to decline by the third quarter of 2025 before beginning a recovery in 2026.
Tariffs could delay the broader trucking market recovery by approximately six months. Although, the reduction in capacity could set the stage for a stronger rebound. The coming months will be critical for refining forecasts as the situation unfolds.
The Axle
Advantage
Our Team
2025 Rocky Top Business Award Winner
Axle Logistics is honored to be named a 2025 Rocky Top Business Award winner, recognizing the fastest-growing businesses owned or led by University of Tennessee, Knoxville alumni. Presented by PYA, this award celebrates the incredible journey of our co-founders, Drew Johnson ’07 and Jon Clay ’09, whose vision and leadership have driven our growth since 2012. This achievement is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our entire team, thank you to each of you for helping us reach this milestone. We couldn’t have done it without all of your passion and commitment!
Axle Impact
Supporting the YWCA Knoxville and the Tennessee Valley
Axle Logistics was proud to attend the Keys of Hope Luncheon hosted by YWCA Knoxville and the Tennessee Valley as a Hope Partner. The event celebrated the YWCA’s ongoing efforts to empower women and eliminate racism, two causes that resonate deeply with our values. As a company, we are committed to creating a positive impact in our community, and partnering with the YWCA allows us to support initiatives that uplift individuals and promote equality. We are grateful for the opportunity to contribute to their important work and look forward to continuing our partnership in the future.
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Contact
If you have questions about current market conditions or would like more information, connect with our team today!