Demand Strength Meets Capacity Strain
Axle
Logistics
Key Trends
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Refrigerated and Flatbed demand continues to grow
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Spot and Contract rates forecasts equalize
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ELPs continue to cause uncertainty on long term capacity
Monthly
News
September News
After a devastating accident in Florida on August 12th, federal officials have sharpened their focus on the immigrant population of truck drivers. Previously it was forecasted that based on the first month of English Language Proficiency OOS violations that 18,000 drivers would be placed out of service in 2025, but now with this accident catapulting a further crackdown, the impact will likely be much larger. On August 21st, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the U.S. would be pausing all worker visas for commercial truck drivers. We will continue to monitor the effects of these efforts on the carrier market over the remainder of the year, to determine the impact on the market.
Market
Trends
Supply Update
The active truck utilization forecast is 1 point higher than previously forecasted. The forecast shows that we will not see anything stronger than current levels until late 2026. Insurance costs and pressure on immigrant drivers are causing continued caution for possible challenges with capacity.
Demand Update
Total truck loadings are projected to be up 0.6% for 2025. Refrigerated and flatbed loadings are contributing to the positive outlook with forecasts of 0.7% and 2.3% for 2025 respectively, while dry vans are currently projecting to be down 0.6% for 2025. Stronger outlooks for food and automotive have provided small increases in all equipment types. However, the job market continues to look soft, which is causing a big concern, but the Fed has signaled the potential of cutting interest rates again. For now, 2026 is forecasted to be flat compared to 2025.
Market
Trends
Rate Update
In an odd turn of events, spot and contract rate forecasts have aligned at +1.6% y/y. Van and flatbed rate forecasts are leading the pack at +1.4% and 1.5% respectively. Refrigerated rates are currently forecasted at 0.6% despite a stronger August of 1.4%. 2026 is holding steady at a forecast of a 1.2% increase for total truck rates.
Market
Forecast
The Trucking Conditions Index improved to -1.03 from -1.83 in June. Slower increases in fuel costs in July likely masked a minor deterioration in key freight-related dynamics. The only positive contribution was the capacity utilization. Freight volume and freight rates both contributed negatively to the index.
Potential hits to driver capacity from external factors like insurance costs, pressure on immigrant drivers, etc., could impact market conditions, but we will have to wait and see. For now, the for-hire trucking population has grown for the third time in four months. The FMCSA authorized 5,083 new carriers in July with revocations totaling 4,747 resulting in an increase of 316 carriers in the market. The market continues to have 35% more drivers than before the pandemic.
The Axle
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Axle Angle
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“I believe operational excellence is the foundation of success in freight brokerage. At Axle Logistics, growth isn’t just about winning new customers, it’s about delivering consistently, executing with precision, and building trust through every shipment. At Axle, operational discipline is what allows us to scale sustainably, create stronger partnerships, and ultimately differentiate ourselves in a highly competitive industry”
— Hadley W., Business Strategy Consultant
Life at Axle
Our Team
Axle Logistics is excited to share that we’ve earned a place on the 2025 Inc. 5000 list, ranking No. 3,910 among the fastest-growing private companies in America. This recognition reflects the momentum we’ve built through the dedication of our team, the trust of our customers, and our ongoing commitment to delivering safe, reliable, and innovative logistics solutions worldwide. We’re proud of this achievement and remain focused on driving growth, fueling innovation, and moving success forward.
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Mission of Hope
Axle Logistics was honored to host a Make-A-Wish America send-off celebration for Thomas and Tony as they embarked on their incredible wish journeys. Moments like these remind us that our impact goes beyond logistics, it’s about supporting the communities we’re proud to be part of. Partnering with organizations like Make-A-Wish allows us to help create joy and lasting memories for children and their families, while reinforcing our commitment to service, compassion, and connection.
Did You Know?
Football season at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville doesn’t just bring packed stands and electric energy; it also changes the flow of freight in and around Knoxville. Game days bring heavier traffic, tighter schedules, and precise coordination to keep freight moving smoothly. Axle Logistics recently put that expertise into action by transporting the Tennessee football team’s benches directly into Neyland Stadium. Through planning, timing, and reliable execution, we ensured everything arrived exactly when and where it was needed, proving once again that logistics is the backbone of game day readiness.
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