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Demand Strength Meets Capacity Strain

September 9, 2025

Demand Strength Meets Capacity Strain

Monthly
News

September News

After a devastating accident in Florida on August 12th, federal officials have sharpened their focus on the immigrant population of truck drivers. Previously it was forecasted that based on the first month of English Language Proficiency OOS violations that 18,000 drivers would be placed out of service in 2025, but now with this accident catapulting a further crackdown, the impact will likely be much larger. On August 21st, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the U.S. would be pausing all worker visas for commercial truck drivers. We will continue to monitor the effects of these efforts on the carrier market over the remainder of the year, to determine the impact on the market.

Market
Forecast

The Trucking Conditions Index improved to -1.03 from -1.83 in June. Slower increases in fuel costs in July likely masked a minor deterioration in key freight-related dynamics. The only positive contribution was the capacity utilization. Freight volume and freight rates both contributed negatively to the index.

Potential hits to driver capacity from external factors like insurance costs, pressure on immigrant drivers, etc., could impact market conditions, but we will have to wait and see. For now, the for-hire trucking population has grown for the third time in four months. The FMCSA authorized 5,083 new carriers in July with revocations totaling 4,747 resulting in an increase of 316 carriers in the market. The market continues to have 35% more drivers than before the pandemic.

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