December 5, 2025
Key Trends
- Truckload rate outlook is slightly firmer
- Market conditions are marginally favorable for carriers
- Spot volume has softened considerably y/y.
December News
The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown continues to limit the availability of key economic data, creating gaps that add uncertainty to 2026 forecasts. Combined with unresolved questions around the final rulings on foreign driver CDL regulations, many industry experts remain cautious about what the coming year may bring.Despite this, we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook that 2026 will see improved balance across rates and capacity utilization.
Market Trends
Supply Update
With no new economic data released for October and part of November, volume and capacity indicators remain largely unchanged. As a result, the Active Truck Utilization outlook continues to hold steady.However, pressure surrounding foreign driver regulations and the unknown timing of potential enforcement continue to add risk to the current forecast.
Demand Update
Spot volumes for October and November trailed 2024 levels. With limited economic data available for September and October, forecasts for total truck loadings remain unchanged at +0.6% year-over-year for 2025, with 2026 currently projected at +0.4%.A full annual revision of production data and historical loadings is expected in Q1, which may lead to adjustments in these projections.
Rate Update
Despite data gaps, the truckload rate outlook strengthened slightly. The 2026 forecast rose to+1.9% (excluding fuel), while the 2025 forecast increased to +1.3% year-over-year.Dry van and refrigerated rates are expected to remain essentially flat in 2025. For 2026, refrigerated is projected at +3.2%, while dry van and flatbed are forecasted at +1.6% and +1.7%, respectively. As additional clarity emerges around loadings and capacity utilization, further revisions remain possible.
Market Forecast
Stronger freight rates contributed to an improvement in the Trucking Conditions Index, rising from 0.42 to 0.89 in October. Current projections remain consistently positive for 2026, pointing toward a steady recovery for carriers if current trends hold.
At this time, the broader market has not yet felt a meaningful impact from the newest CDL regulations affecting foreign drivers. Enforcement remains on hold following federal appeals court intervention, pending further review.
Life at Axle
Our Team
HQ2 Ribbon Cutting
We are thrilled to celebrate the ribbon-cutting of HQ2, our new six-story, 84,000 sq. ft. headquarters designed to support Axle Logistics’ continued growth and enhance the work we do for our partners and community. The event underscored our commitment to expanding opportunities, strengthening our services, and investing in Knoxville’s future. HQ2’s forward-thinking design provides the space and foundation for the next chapter of Axle’s growth. We’re grateful to our team and the Knoxville community for the support that makes milestones like this possible.
Axle Impact
Boys and Girls Clubs Thanksgiving
This Thanksgiving, our team had the privilege of spending the day with the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Tennessee Valley. Our team volunteered to serve meals, connect with students, and support the programs that make such a meaningful impact on local youth. Axle Logistics’ partnership with the Boys & Girls Clubs continues to highlight the importance of investing in initiatives that empower young people, foster growth, and strengthen families across East Tennessee. We’re proud to contribute to their mission and grateful to everyone who dedicated their time and energy to make this year’s visit special.
Did You Know?
The holiday season is the busiest time of year for the logistics industry, with an estimated 3 billion packages shipped in the U.S. between Thanksgiving and Christmas alone. This massive surge in demand relies on a complex network of carriers, distribution centers, and transportation partners working around the clock to keep gifts moving. From online retailers to last-mile delivery teams, every link in the supply chain plays a role in ensuring holiday packages arrive at doorsteps in time for Christmas morning.
