Truckload Market Shows Early Signs of Recovery

Key Trends

Truckload rates look stronger
Carrier market conditions improve substantially
Freight-related indicators are mostly positive

Monthly News

Is the freight recession over? Truckload spot rates have been improving year over year since late 2024, with contract rates following in early 2025, suggesting the market has likely moved off the bottom. That said, meaningful rate inflation requires more than capacity discipline alone. It depends on sustained freight demand. Recent economic and industrial indicators point to improving freight volumes in the back half of the year, supporting higher truck utilization and laying the groundwork for a more durable recovery. The takeaway: conditions are improving, but the next phase of the market will be shaped by demand-driven growth rather than a rapid rate rebound.

Market Trends

Supply Update

The Active Truck Utilization forecast has strengthened, with utilization expected to exceed 97% by Q2 and stabilize in Q3. Outlook beyond that will depend on how freight volumes and active driver capacity evolve over the coming months, as the trajectory of both factors remains a key variable.

Demand Update

Economic indicators tied to freight continue to improve, with manufacturing output increasing for seven consecutive months and real consumer spending on goods rising in five of the past six months. Spot volumes are up y/y, driven largely by flatbed demand. Dry van volumes are tracking in line with 2025 levels, while reefer loadings remain softer. Looking ahead, total truckload volumes for 2026 are forecasted to increase by 1.3% y/y.

Rate Update

The 2026 truckload rate forecast currently calls for a 3.7% y/y increase, driven by a strong rebound in spot rates and steady gains in contract pricing. Refrigerated and dry van segments are expected to lead the market, with refrigerated rates projected to rise 6.5% year over year and dry van rates up 3.9%. Flatbed rates are also forecasted to increase, though at a more moderate pace than in 2025, with expected growth of 2.1%.

Market Forecast

December marked the most favorable carrier market conditions since February 2022, driven by stronger freight rates and higher capacity utilization. The TCI increased to 4.85 in December, up from 2.14 in November, reflecting a meaningful improvement in carrier conditions. Looking ahead, the TCI forecast remains consistently positive over the next two years, supported primarily by higher projected freight rates, with incremental support from improving freight volumes.

The Axle Advantage

Life at Axle

SCM 430: Spring Semester

The start of the new semester marks the return of SCM 430 through Axle Logistics’ ongoing partnership with UTK. Over the course of seven weeks, 40 students are actively immersed in a real-world logistics environment at HQ2. Students are currently learning their roles, cold calling, meeting their team leads, and establishing SMART goals to guide their development throughout the practicum. By blending classroom learning with on-site experience, the program gives students the opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of sales, transportation management, and how logistics operates in a fast-paced setting. SCM 430: Spring Semester.

Axle Impact

American Heart Association Heart Ball

Axle Logistics is proud to sponsor the Knoxville Heart Ball After Party for the fourth year in a row, continuing its support of the American Heart Association and its mission to improve heart health and save lives. The Heart Ball and Late Party Masquerade will take place later this month, bringing the community together in support of heart health initiatives across East Tennessee. Ali Fraley, Vice President of Learning and Development, recently appeared on WATE-TV to help spread the word, sharing the importance of community involvement and how strong local partnerships help make a lasting impact.

Did You Know?

The Super Bowl isn’t just a championship; it’s a logistics powerhouse. Well before kickoff, freight volumes rise as food, beverages, merchandise, and equipment move across the country on tight schedules. Refrigerated capacity plays a major role in delivering game day staples, while careful planning and real time coordination ensure inventory is positioned ahead of sharp demand spikes. With millions of households hosting watch parties nationwide, the Super Bowl underscores how preparation, reliable transportation, and trusted partnerships keep freight moving efficiently during high pressure.