Axle Monthly Update: November 2025

With the new regulations affecting foreign truck drivers, a modest but meaningful impact on capacity is expected. In response, FTR has adjusted its forecast for active truck utilization, projecting an increase of more than 1%, reaching 96% by the end of 2026.

Based on spot market volumes, forecasts indicate a 0.6% increase in total truck loadings for 2025. Dry van volumes continue to decline, driven by a weaker outlook for food-related freight. Refrigerated freight remains stable, with projections holding at +0.6% for 2025. Flatbed projections have been adjusted slightly downward by 0.1% for 2025 but show improvement for 2026, now forecasted at +0.2%, up from the previously expected -0.3%.

Rate forecasts for 2025 remain steady at +1.2% year over year, with projections for 2026 rising to +1.8%. Both spot and contract rate outlooks for 2026 have been revised upward, with spot rates expected to increase by +2.1% and contract rates by +1.7%. The refrigerated segment is projected to see the largest gain in 2026, with rates up +2.6% year over year, while other modes are expected to rise by approximately +1.5%.

As we head into the final quarter of 2025, the freight market continues to show early signs of recovery, but with new variables on the horizon. Capacity has begun to tighten across several regions, and with the FMCSA’s recent September ruling on non-domiciled CDLs expected to further constrain driver availability, the balance between supply and demand may shift faster than anticipated.

“With the FMCSA’s recent non-domiciled CDL ruling likely to tighten driver supply, we anticipate increased pressure on capacity through Q4, making proactive planning and strong carrier partnerships more critical than ever,” said Dylan Dameron, Director of Carrier Sales at Axle Logistics.

At Axle, we view Q4 with cautious optimism to close out the year. The market is moving in the right direction, but sustained progress will depend on how the industry adapts to evolving regulatory and capacity challenges. This period presents an opportunity to stay proactive by aligning strategy, strengthening partnerships, and ensuring our customers experience consistency and reliability even amid uncertainty.

While the peak season brings its usual mix of volume surges and volatility, our focus remains steady: clear communication, dependable execution, and agile problem-solving across every mode and lane.

The road ahead may not be without challenges, but we’re confident in our team, our partners, and our ability to keep freight moving forward, deliberate, prepared, and ready for what’s next.

SCM 430: Excited for Spring 2026

We’re thrilled to continue our partnership with the University of Tennessee for the UTK x Axle Logistics Practicum, returning for Spring 2026! This hands-on program provides Supply Chain Management students with real-world experience in logistics, sales, and transportation management, right here at Axle. Through classroom learning and on-site training, students gain leadership, problem-solving, and strategic thinking skills. We’re proud to partner with UTK to provide meaningful, career-building opportunities that prepare students for success in the logistics industry.

Oktoberfest

Axle Logistics celebrated another incredible Oktoberfest this year, raising an amazing $41,000 in support of Big Brothers Big Sisters of East Tennessee. The annual event brought the Axle team together for friendly competition, great food, and plenty of fun, all in support of a great cause. Each ticket, team entry, and activity helped empower local youth through mentorship and guidance. Oktoberfest once again showed the heart of Axle’s culture: coming together, giving back, and making a lasting difference in the community.

Thanksgiving dinner travels an average of 1,500 miles before it reaches your plate! Many of the ingredients that make up your holiday meal often journey across states to arrive fresh and on time. This nationwide effort highlights the vital role the logistics and transportation industry plays in connecting farms, suppliers, and grocery shelves during one of the busiest seasons of the year. A carefully coordinated network of drivers, warehouses, and distribution centers works together to keep traditions alive and tables full.