Key Trends
- Economic data is sparse due to the shutdown.
- 2026 truckload rate forecasts look slightly stronger.
- Active utilization looks a bit stronger on capacity loss.
November News
The federal government’s temporary shutdown throughout October has resulted in a pause in the release of key economic reports, creating a data gap as we enter Q4. With no new data published since October 1, the industry is currently missing important indicators related to truck loadings, rate trends, fuel costs, and employment metrics. This may lead to inaccuracies in the forecasts.
Market Trends
Supply Update
With the new regulations affecting foreign truck drivers, a modest but meaningful impact on capacity is expected. In response, FTR has adjusted its forecast for active truck utilization, projecting an increase of more than 1%, reaching 96% by the end of 2026.
Demand Update
Based on spot market volumes, forecasts indicate a 0.6% increase in total truck loadings for 2025. Dry van volumes continue to decline, driven by a weaker outlook for food-related freight. Refrigerated freight remains stable, with projections holding at +0.6% for 2025. Flatbed projections have been adjusted slightly downward by 0.1% for 2025 but show improvement for 2026, now forecasted at +0.2%, up from the previously expected -0.3%.
Rate Update
Rate forecasts for 2025 remain steady at +1.2% year over year, with projections for 2026 rising to +1.8%. Both spot and contract rate outlooks for 2026 have been revised upward, with spot rates expected to increase by +2.1% and contract rates by +1.7%. The refrigerated segment is projected to see the largest gain in 2026, with rates up +2.6% year over year, while other modes are expected to rise by approximately +1.5%.
Market Forecast
Tightening capacity and anticipated rate increases are expected to create more favorable conditions for carriers in 2026, reflected in an improving Trucking Conditions Index (TCI). The current outlook assumes only modest volume growth, suggesting potential for further improvement if demand strengthens. In Q3, the total number of active carriers declined slightly, with 1,000 fewer new carrier authorizations during the quarter.
Life at Axle
Our team
SCM 430: Excited for Spring 2026
We’re thrilled to continue our partnership with the Global Supply Chain Institute at the University of Tennessee for the UTK x Axle Logistics Practicum, returning for Spring 2026! This hands-on program provides Supply Chain Management students with real-world experience in logistics, sales, and transportation management, right here at Axle. Through classroom learning and on-site training, students gain leadership, problem-solving, and strategic thinking skills. We’re proud to partner with UTK to provide meaningful, career-building opportunities that prepare students for success in the logistics industry.
Axle Impact
Oktoberfest
Axle Logistics celebrated another incredible Oktoberfest this year, raising an amazing $41,000 in support of Big Brothers Big Sisters of East Tennessee. The annual event brought the Axle team together for friendly competition, great food, and plenty of fun, all in support of a great cause. Each ticket, team entry, and activity helped empower local youth through mentorship and guidance. Oktoberfest once again showed the heart of Axle’s culture: coming together, giving back, and making a lasting difference in the community.
Did You Know?
Thanksgiving dinner travels an average of 1,500 miles before it reaches your plate! Many of the ingredients that make up your holiday meal often journey across states to arrive fresh and on time. This nationwide effort highlights the vital role the logistics and transportation industry plays in connecting farms, suppliers, and grocery shelves during one of the busiest seasons of the year. A carefully coordinated network of drivers, warehouses, and distribution centers works together to keep traditions alive and tables full.
