Key Trends
- Flatbed continues to drive the spot market
- Truckload rates look stronger
- Diesel price increases and uncertainty loom
Monthly News
Diesel prices reached a 52-week high in April, with the national average climbing to $5.64 per gallon. Regional markets continue to experience even greater pressure, with areas such as California averaging more than $7.00 per gallon. Crude oil consistently closed above $100 per barrel. Rising fuel prices are placing additional strain on carrier operating costs at a time when transportation providers are already managing inflationary pressures across labor, equipment, maintenance, and insurance expenses. These sustained cost increases continue to contribute to ongoing carrier exits and further contraction across the truckload market.
Market Trends
Supply Update
Truckload capacity continues to tighten as active truck utilization trends higher across the market. While softer freight demand may eventually slow the pace of tightening, utilization levels remain near historic highs and are expected to peak near 97.5% before declining in 2027. The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) for Transportation Capacity fell to 28.4, its lowest reading since September 2020. Any reading below 50 indicates contracting capacity, and current levels point to an extremely constrained operating environment that continues to pressure service and pricing conditions.
Demand Update
Freight demand expectations remain positive across all three primary truckload segments year over year. Flatbed continues to lead projected growth, driven largely by increased construction and building material activity. Dry van demand has also strengthened, supported by improved outlooks in automotive and packaged goods volumes, though partially offset by softer food-related shipments. Refrigerated demand projections softened slightly during the month due to weaker expectations for refrigerated food volumes, but overall demand trends remain stable.
Rate Update
Truckload pricing continued to strengthen throughout the month as tightening capacity and elevated rejection rates supported upward momentum across both spot and contract markets. Current forecasts project overall truckload rates to increase 10.4% year over year, with spot rates expected to rise 19.0% and contract rates forecasted to increase 6.4%. Tender rejections remain elevated at 13.03%, signaling that carriers are still selectively accepting freight and prioritizing higher-yield opportunities. Combined with ongoing capacity contraction, these conditions continue to create upward pressure on rates.
Market Forecast
The freight market continues to face a combination of elevated tender rejections, constrained capacity, rising fuel costs, and broader economic uncertainty tied to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Together, these factors are creating a more volatile transportation environment and supporting continued rate pressure across the market. While freight volume forecasts remain more moderate compared to prior cycles, the supply side of the market remains the primary driver of current conditions and will continue to play a critical role in overall market stability moving forward.
The Axle Advantage
Built on Partnerships. Driven by Performance.
At Axle, strong partnerships start from within. It is a culture built on showing up, putting in the effort, and communicating through every moment, both the wins and the challenges. Nick Maute, VP of Logistics shares how developing people, staying accountable, and fostering open dialogue not only strengthen teams, but drive real performance for our customers. At the end of the day, it comes down to delivering on promises and being there when it counts.
Read the full blog and hear how Nick Maute approaches building stronger partnerships.
ESK Saints’ Gala
Supporting students means investing in the future of our community, and the ESK Saints’ Gala is a strong reflection of that impact. We were proud to sponsor this year’s event, an evening focused on opening doors for students across Knoxville. The support raised helps fund scholarships, strengthen academic programs, and expand access to opportunities that shape what comes next. It’s a reflection of what matters to us, showing up, supporting the community, and helping build a stronger future for the next generation.
Did You Know?
Produce season is ramping up, bringing a surge of fresh shipments across the country. During peak weeks, major growing regions can move thousands of additional loads of fruits and vegetables, putting significant pressure on refrigerated capacity. As carriers prioritize these time-sensitive shipments, the rest of the market often see tighter capacity, rising rates, and less flexibility. Because produce moves on strict timelines, even small delays can lead to major losses, making planning, communication, and reliable capacity more important than ever.
