Key Trends
- Recent spot strength raises the truckload rate forecast
- Trucking conditions turn mildly positive
- Spot volume surged in December
Monthly News
The transportation market is showing early signs of renewed momentum as spot rates have surged in recent weeks and industry conversations increasingly point toward a potential freight rebound. Capacity utilization is at a recent high, signaling tighter conditions and improved demand compared to late 2025. At the same time, uncertainty remains around how increased enforcement on non-domiciled CDL carriers may impact available capacity and pricing as we move further into the year. Together, these factors suggest a more dynamic and potentially volatile freight environment heading into 2026.
Market Trends
Supply Update
Current forecasts show active truck utilization at 95% by the first quarter of 2026 and peaking at the beginning of 2027. There will likely be changes to the forecast as corrections are made to historical data surrounding loadings.
Demand Update
Spot volume loadings have held firm since Thanksgiving. Currently being led by strong load volume in flatbed and dry van shipments. Dry van volumes are posting their strongest volume in 2 years.The latest forecast for total truck loadings in 2026 is up to +0.1% after 2025 ended at -0.3%. Refrigerated loadings are projected to lead the growth, as dry van and flatbed are both projected to decrease further in 2026. Flatbed loadings ended 2025 at -0.1% after previously being forecasted at +2.2% earlier in the year.
Rate Update
Total truckload rates are projected to be up 2.5% in 2026. Spot rates are projected to be up 3.6% and contract rate continue their upward trajectory at a 2.0% increase. For modal-specific rate forecasts, refrigerated rates are expected to increase the most, at 3.9%, with dry van and flatbed coming in at 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. LTL rates are also expected to jump at a 2.7% increase.
Market Forecast
The Trucking Conditions Index for November is showing the most favorable market conditions in the last 6 months. The TCI forecast is consistently higher for the next 2 years. Utilization and rate increases are the 2 biggest drivers for better conditions for carriers.n Diesel prices have been on a rollercoaster over the last several months. Prices rose 25 cents over four weeks in October and November before falling more than 32 cents over the following 5 weeks. The current price of diesel is the lowest since mid-June.
The Axle Advantage
Life at Axle
Our Team
2025 Award Winners
At our annual Christmas Party, we recognize the excellence that defines Axle Logistics. Throughout 2025, these individuals set the standard through leadership, accountability, and performance.
We’re proud to celebrate our 2025 award recipients:
- Broker of the Year: Noah Simpson
- Salesperson of the Year: Chuck Munsey
- Administrative Excellence: Brett Fries
- Operational Excellence: Eli Jessee
- Team Leader of the Year: Chris Arp
- Most Improved: Gunnar Norwood
- Rookie of the Year: Hudson Lowe
- Launch Pad MVB: Tyler Thompson
- Axle Impact Award: Tony Perfetto
- Baller Chain: Zeus Ponder
- Outstanding Achievement: Tres Markham
Their dedication and consistency continue to drive Axle Logistics forward.
Axle Impact
2025 Recap
2025 was a year rooted in connection and purpose. Alongside 133 community partners, Axle Logistics participated in 85 events and contributed more than $1.1 million to initiatives that create a meaningful impact. These efforts reflect time invested, relationships built, and commitment to the communities we serve. As we head into 2026, this focus on lasting connections continues to guide how we show up, work together, and make a difference.
Did You Know?
As the industry transitions out of peak season, freight volumes can change rapidly, weather patterns grow more unpredictable, and capacity often fluctuates from week to week. Snowstorms, ice, and extreme cold don’t just slow transit times; they can force reroutes, tighten available capacity, and require constant adjustments across the supply chain. For carriers and shippers, January demands flexibility, fast decision-making, and clear communication to keep freight moving efficiently. It’s a time when strong planning, trusted partnerships, and real-world experience make a measurable difference in navigating challenges and maintaining reliability.
