On the surface, the freight market looks calm: utilization steady, insurance holding flat, and volumes showing only slight adjustments. But zoom in, and new regulatory enforcement, shifting commodity flows, and uneven rate performance reveal a market still in flux. Here’s how August is shaping up, and what’s worth watching in the months ahead.
Enforcement Headlines, Limited Fallout
The launch of English language proficiency (ELP) enforcement was expected to create a sharp disruption in capacity. Instead, early results show that violations are rising sharply to 5,617 from June to July, compared to just 599 during the same period in 2024. 73% of these violations occurred in border zones that were exempted from out-of-service (OOS) enforcement by a May 20 guidance.
Utilization Holding Its Ground
FTR’s outlook for active truck utilization has held in a tight range since February, hovering between 93.5% and 94%. That stability is unlikely to last indefinitely. Forecasts continue to call for a mild softening late this year, with a bottoming out expected in the first quarter of 2026. However, the outlook is tempered by potential upside from an accelerated capacity exit.
Freight Mix Shows Uneven Momentum
The forecast for Total Truck Loadings has been revised up to a +0.4% year-over-year increase, from the earlier +0.2% outlook. Overall, the freight outlook brightened slightly this month:
- Dry Van: Projected at -0.8%, slightly better than previous expectations, driven by improvements in food and automotive shipments.
- Refrigerated: Holding steady at +0.4% showing consistent demand in food and other temperature-sensitive freight.
- Flatbed: Raised to +2.2%, reflecting broad-based commodity strength and firm industrial demand.
Rates Trend Lower, But Still Positive
Truckload rates are now projected to rise 1.8% year-over-year in 2025, a slight downgrade from last month. Both spot and contract rates have softened, with van and reefer driving the weakness. Flatbed rates remain comparatively firmer, though not immune to pressure. Looking ahead to 2026, the growth forecast has been trimmed as well, now at +1.2% year-over-year, reflecting expectations for a softer first half before a gradual recovery.
Fuel Down, Insurance Flat
Fuel continues to offer carriers some relief, with diesel prices trending lower through August. This easing is helping offset one of the largest operating cost burdens. Insurance, however, remains stubbornly high, though premiums have at least stabilized in recent months. Encouragingly, the for-hire carrier population grew last quarter, the first expansion since 2022, as new authorizations outpaced revocations.
What Shippers Should Watch Now
- ELP enforcement: Rules are generating citations, but capacity hasn’t budged due to border-zone exemptions.
- Equipment-level divergence: Flatbed strength continues, reefer is steady, and van remains weak.
- Seasonal softness incoming: Expect a Q4 cooling in utilization and rates, but stay nimble in case carrier exits accelerate.
- Managing costs: Take advantage of falling fuel prices while planning for stubbornly high insurance premiums.
August shows a market where headline risks aren’t yet translating into true capacity disruption. Utilization remains firm, volumes are inching upward, and rates are holding, albeit at slightly lower growth levels.
But for carriers and shippers, the weight of high insurance costs, regulatory oversight, and uneven demand signals that success will depend on staying adaptable and preparing for a slow path to recovery as 2026 approaches.