Rate Growth Following Roadcheck Disruptions

The annual International Roadcheck enforcement event, held in mid-May, once again had a noticeable impact on freight markets. During the three-day inspection period, many carriers either reduced operating hours or temporarily parked equipment to avoid delays and roadside inspections, creating a short-term reduction in available capacity. As a result, spot market volumes increased and rates strengthened across several equipment types, particularly dry van and flatbed.

While the event itself lasted only a few days, the effects continued into the following weeks as carriers worked through backlogs and repositioned equipment. The disruption contributed to tighter market conditions heading into June and reinforced the broader trend of increasing carrier utilization. With freight demand remaining healthy, even temporary capacity reductions can create outsized impacts on pricing and service levels in key markets.

Due to continued disruptions in capacity causing increased performance of the spot market, FTR has upped its forecast for active truck utilization by 2 percentage points. This gain is expected to be temporary with the peak occurring late summer. The forecast is expected to remain elevated until mid-2027. The Logistics Managers’ index improved slightly from April to 31.70, readings under 50 indicate a constrained carrier market.

Freight demand remained resilient throughout May, with spot market volumes holding at historically elevated year-over-year levels. As expected, the annual International Roadcheck event provided an additional boost to activity, with volume remaining elevated in the weeks that followed, particularly across dry van and flatbed equipment. Looking ahead, FTR has increased its truckload demand outlook, now forecasting total truck loadings to grow 1.3% in 2026, up from its previous forecast of 0.4%.

The strongest gains are expected in the flatbed segment, where loadings are projected to increase 3.6% year-over-year, supported by stronger building materials and industrial activity. Dry van demand is also expected to improve, driven primarily by automotive freight, while refrigerated demand remains steady with modest growth tied to food shipments. Overall, the outlook points to gradually strengthening freight demand across most equipment types heading into the second half of the year.

Truckload rates continued to strengthen in May as capacity remains tight and carrier utilization improves across the market. Supporting this trend, the SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI) 7-day average ended May at $3.63 per mile, reflecting continued upward pressure on spot market pricing. FTR significantly increased its 2026 truckload rate forecast, now projecting rates to rise 14.4% year-over-year excluding fuel surcharges, driven by stronger-than-expected market performance and increasing equipment utilization.

Spot rates are expected to lead the market higher with projected growth of more than 28% year-over-year, while contract rates are forecast to increase 7.9%. Strength is expected across all major equipment types, signaling a favorable pricing environment for carriers through the remainder of the year. Looking ahead, FTR also raised its 2027 outlook, forecasting overall truckload rates to increase 5.0%, supported by continued contract rate growth despite spot rates moderating as the market rebalances. Additionally, diesel prices appear to have peaked, which could provide some cost relief for carriers as the year progresses while overall rate conditions remain favorable.

One of the clearest indicators of a tightening freight market has been the continued rise in tender rejection rates. After trending higher throughout the spring, the national outbound tender rejection rate (OTRI) peaked at 16.45% in May, reaching its highest level of the year and signaling that carriers are increasingly turning down contracted freight in favor of more attractive spot market opportunities.

Rising rejection rates are typically one of the earliest signs of a market shifting in favor of carriers. As utilization increases and available capacity becomes more constrained, carriers gain greater pricing leverage and become more selective with freight. The recent increase in tender rejections aligns with strengthening spot rates, elevated load volumes, and FTR's improved outlook for both demand and truckload pricing.