Axle Monthly Update: October 2025

Forecasts for active truck utilization remain below 95% through Q3 of 2026. This continues to signal that there is abundant capacity in the market. However, the current forecasts do not take into account he recent ruling on non-domicile CDLs and the impact that is potentially going to have on capacity.

Even with the ever-changing tariff landscape, unemployment increases, and other concerning economic conditions, the indicators linked to freight are holding up. Dry van and flatbed volumes continue to remain higher than 2024 but refrigerated remains behind original forecasts. A less negative outlook for automotive and other dry goods caused a slight improvement for dry van loadings. The flatbed loadings forecast remains unchanged. Improvements in all major temperature-controlled food categories cause a slight improvement in refrigerated forecasts.

Truckload rate forecasts decreased slightly due to softer growth in contract rates. Rates are still forecasted to be at +1.2% y/y, and 2026 is forecasted at +1.4% y/y, with the largest driver being the spot freight outlook. Similarly to the supply update, the forecasts were set ahead of the September 29th ruling on foreign nationals’ commercial driver’s licenses. FTR expects some degree of rate pressure as a likely result.

As we head into the final quarter of 2025, the freight market continues to show early signs of recovery, but with new variables on the horizon. Capacity has begun to tighten across several regions, and with the FMCSA’s recent September ruling on non-domiciled CDLs expected to further constrain driver availability, the balance between supply and demand may shift faster than anticipated.

“With the FMCSA’s recent non-domiciled CDL ruling likely to tighten driver supply, we anticipate increased pressure on capacity through Q4, making proactive planning and strong carrier partnerships more critical than ever,” said Dylan Dameron, Director of Carrier Sales at Axle Logistics.
At Axle, we view Q4 with cautious optimism to close out the year. The market is moving in the right direction, but sustained progress will depend on how the industry adapts to evolving regulatory and capacity challenges. This period presents an opportunity to stay proactive by aligning strategy, strengthening partnerships, and ensuring our customers experience consistency and reliability even amid uncertainty.

While the peak season brings its usual mix of volume surges and volatility, our focus remains steady: clear communication, dependable execution, and agile problem-solving across every mode and lane.

The road ahead may not be without challenges, but we’re confident in our team, our partners, and our ability to keep freight moving forward, deliberate, prepared, and ready for what’s next.

McLeod Software User Conference

At the McLeod Software User Conference, President Shawn McLeod highlighted the Navix freight audit platform, showcasing how it delivers accuracy and efficiency for our partners. VP of Operations Dylan Dameron shared strategies for translating AI initiatives into measurable ROI, giving attendees a real-world look at how emerging technology creates tangible impact. Together, they demonstrated Axle’s role as an industry leader dedicated to innovation, partnership, and shaping the future of logistics.

Heart Walk

Team Axle participated in the American Heart Association Heart Walk at Zoo Knoxville, an event dedicated to raising awareness for heart health and supporting life-saving research. We joined thousands of community members, walking together to honor those impacted and help advance cardiovascular health initiatives. Axle Logistics remains committed to supporting the health and well-being of the communities we serve. Thank you to everyone who walked, donated, and contributed to making a difference!

The start of fall marks an important transition in freight movement. Harvest season increases the movement of produce, such as apples, pumpkins, and grains, driving higher demand for refrigerated and dry van freight. Cooler weather improves driving conditions in many regions, but shorter days and foggy mornings require extra planning for safe, on-time deliveries. At the same time, retailers and distribution centers begin preparing for the upcoming holiday rush, adjusting inventory and capacity to meet rising demand. Fall is a season of transition, and logistics plays a key role in keeping those changes moving smoothly.

August presents a unique set of challenges for freight movement, as high shipment volumes coincide with peak summer travel. As vacationers flood highways, especially around tourist hotspots and major cities, truck routes become heavily congested, leading to slower travel times and increased fuel consumption. Truckers must adapt by planning routes to navigate these dynamic conditions, ensuring that deliveries continue to flow smoothly, even during the busiest travel season.